Implications of the Coronavirus

Twelve days in a state of total lockdown, hemmed into your home only able to go and buy a few groceries or head to the bank can take its toll on even the most introverted of individuals. I always put great strain to emphasize to any person I interact with just how privileged I am to have lived and traveled to all but one of the continents here on earth, but this is the first time I have ever seen anything like this. A virtuoso ghost town, no restaurants, no bars, no malls, no people accept a splutter here and there making their way to dutifully and bravely provide the essential services that are keeping our society from falling into total and utter collapse or those going to get resupplies and returning into hermit mode.

It’s really painful to see. Given the difficulty and strain, such a pandemic can give to the health sector of any country the chances of this lockdown lasting only twenty-one days are paltry at best and this could have a long-lasting effect on the regional and global economy given the globalized nature of the disease in question. It’s unlike any seen before since the Spanish flu over a hundred years ago as unlike recent pandemics which were largely concentrated in certain regions this has directly or indirectly affected every being on the planet especially those who live from hand to mouth predominantly in third world countries.

The implications of this disease are unlikely to be limited to just a few months however and they could have the potential to speed up certain existing trends as well as bring about a totally different order in international relations as we move into the new decade. From the 4th industrial revolution to rising political tensions between extremely polarized forces the long term effects of this virus are likely to have a lasting effect on how society organizes itself as a whole but for me, I picked four that most certainly will be accelerated as a result of the Coronavirus for better or for worse.

1. Increased Remote workforce

For those who believe that working from home is a temporary fix during this crisis think again. As we move further into the 2020s this trend is likely to perpetuate itself further. Already in the United States of America, 44% of their workforce is considered eligible to work from home, this has been a pattern that has been prevalent since 2001 in the US with similarities in other parts of the Western World.

One should consider the fact that because of the massive hit that industrial stocks are likely to take during this period as many divest and seek to invest in safe-haven assets like gold, many corporations would be looking to save money on costs incurred as a result of having a large workforce. Costs like real estate expenses and foodservice which are normally associated with having a large contingent of employees present in the office space will be cut exponentially through remote working allowing companies to re-invest said money into other means of production. Hopefully.

This has been the trend that has followed most other crises that bring about a seismic shift in the economic order like 9/11 and 2008 so it wouldn’t be a stretch to expect an increase in remote working over the next five to ten years, especially given the fact that on average small to medium size businesses save about $11 000 per half time telecommuter through the use of remote working. And for most an employee I wouldn’t be complaining I mean think of all the perks that could come of this! Flexibility is the chief among them which could lead to increased morale and retention of talent for employees.

The effectiveness of remote working in less connected communities in the world is also yet to be tested, however. Communication between individuals residing in countries with high data tariffs and those with more advanced network systems which help cut the cost of instantaneous modes of communication exponentially is likely to be a problem and could adversely affect conducting business across borders, especially regionally in Southern Africa where many an employee rely solely on internet services provided at local offices to conduct work activities. Even in the US itself one in five American adults use their phones to access the internet at home and do not have broadband access. And even though Africa has increased usage of e-services the quality and efficiency of said services in areas outside the cosmopolitan hubs across the continent remains an issue. It’s safe to say the jury is still out on this in terms of effectiveness but it will most definitely be implemented.

2. Increased Automation and Shifts in Consumer behavior

“The human element of human resources is our biggest point of vulnerability we should start phasing it out completely”. This was a quote by Happy Hogan a comic book character portrayed by Jon Favreau in a marvel movie about seven years ago. At the time it’s something you would smirk at with some humor. I mean what kind of a cruel, dystopian vision would that be where human activity is phased out from the workplace? But as this millennium has progressed this has become an increasing reality and at an extremely rapid pace.

Already an estimated 4.5 million workers in South Africa largely unskilled are likely to lose their jobs as many of the labor-intensive industries move towards the use of specialized machinery. Because of the cost that can be linked with having an over-bloated work staff and inefficiency that can be caused through issues like strikes or even workers calling off sick, the harsh reality could be that soon after covid 19 a mass exodus towards automation is likely to occur as businesses look to ensure that production does not falter. Because when you put yourself in the shoes of a big shot executive at a mining company the blunt truth is this. Robots don’t have any emotions or underlying health issues that affect them. Save for the little glitch here and there and some maintenance issues they just work.

Even your normal brick and mortar retailers will suffer as more and more people will permanently shift towards purchasing everything online from shoes right down to groceries which could lead to an increased wave of unemployed workers which would essentially need governments to be either prepared to retrain workers or have a welfare program of some sort to help cushion those retrenched. Which leads directly to my next point.

3. Universal Income

As more and more people are retrenched with employers looking to stop the bleeding from the current economic crisis the possibility of universal income and increased welfare benefits could be right around the corner. With the expected retrenchments linked to this crisis expected to reach at least 32 million in the US alone and some titans in certain key industries like financing announcing plans of releasing 15 percent of their workforce HSBC being one of note, a basic universal income becomes an inevitability.

Even at the time of this writing, we are already seeing a semblance of this with stimulus checks being provided in the United States and Spain planning to introduce universal basic income and make it a permanent feature of their society long after the pandemic has passed. In the U.K large insurance funds like one family are providing special grants to assist children without adequate materials to be able to work effectively from home and in South Africa you have multiple billionaires donating sizable amounts to aid in relief programs as well as assist entrepreneurs. The need for adequate welfare in times like this is tantamount to success in providing some sort of economic relief for those hit hardest. Ultimately however it can be considered to be hacking at leaves that the orange tree is dropping onto the lawn as opposed to cutting at the root. To ensure full recovery of the economy a wide set of structural reforms are needed to unlock the creative potential in the next generation so the titans of tomorrow can be created to help save our present state.

4. Geo-Political shifts and trends

A situation like this can do either one of two things. It can either put people into divided and mutually exclusive camps when the ineffectiveness of dealing with the disease is politicized by those seeking power or it could bring people together in solidarity against a common foe. For now, it seems as if the latter has prevailed as many leaders around the world look to put differences aside to try and assist in the eradication of a common threat. The need to be able to eventually go back to a state where the four freedoms particularly the freedom of movement which has proven to be the key driving force in the development of any society from enlightenment Europe to the rise of Asian tiger states is crucial.

There is nothing more important than the freedom of movement in a globalized and interconnected system as the economic output depends a great deal on this, to quote Kennedy “no nation can build its destiny alone, the age of self-sufficient nationalism is over, the age of interdependence is here”. And this rings true today. I mean just look at how the tourism and airline industries are screaming right now in the wake of this mess! This is quite possibly the most important aspect of the modern era and though many right-winged parties throughout the EU and America screamed out a lot of overly nationalist hyperbole about their wishes to barricade borders and take us back to the days of old, we can all clearly see that they are mistaken by our current predicament. Like it or lump it we are all part of a global village and so embracing this would be far better than shunning it and given that the tide of politics is likely to shift towards the left with an increased need for welfare programs friendlier policies on free movement and integration are likely to be implemented.

However, a high risk of the pandemic being politicized as a means to try and further increase stronger borders in the name of safety and protection of national interest remains a possibility. Such an approach in the long term will serve no greater purpose than to further isolate communities and create an atmosphere of distrust and paranoia and no good can ever come from such.

Changing of the Guard

America’s place as the foremost superpower could also be threatened. The lax attitude taken towards this disease, a poor approach towards health care with a universal health care system seemingly disbanded, and the lightning-fast spread of the disease because of a lack of unity among federal and state governments on precautionary measures has left their economy plummeting. It’s a right mess! The worst thing that can ever happen during any crisis is indecisiveness, and America has been the very embodiment of this. Their economy is projected to have double-digit figures for unemployment by July and there is a high possibility that one of the BRICS nations probably China will replace them. One will definitely expect a new deal like stimulus package to come from Washington to help numb the pain but given that this has already occurred just 12 years ago it’s likely to see the national debt balloon towards an even more unassailable level.

Always a light at the end of the tunnel

One thing we can always count on is that even in a case like this we will always be able to soldier on and survive. There is always going to be a silver lining and to take a leaf out of Queen Elizabeth’s book successfully fighting back against this disease will once again prove that this generation of human beings is as strong and as formidable as any. But one thing is for sure this virus is certainly going to have a lasting impact on the world we live in and could have been the point where we are fully thrust into the 21st century much like our forebearers were with similar events like world war 1 and 2 and other issues with significant consequences in world history. Always with a sense of solidarity, courage, and resilience to overcome we were able to make it through such treacherous waters, and in this case, I have no doubt that we will be able to do so again. Keep safe and God bless you all.